TS Debby.. AND.. - Pensacola Fishing Forum

Go Back   Pensacola Fishing Forum > General Discussion > Hurricane Help/Info and more

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 06-23-2012, 05:04 PM   #1
Roll Tider
White Marlin
 
Austin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pensacola
Posts: 2,662
Default TS Debby.. AND..

Jim Cantore will be on Pensacola Beach starting tomorrow.. great. At least that's the word on the streets!
Austin is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 06-23-2012, 05:07 PM   #2
Senior Member
Grouper
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 645
Default

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...daynl#contents

Shows that it should turn west...should being the operative word. Let's hope.
EODangler is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-23-2012, 10:09 PM   #3
Senior Member
Trigger
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Pensacola Fl.
Posts: 347
Default

Well Cantore shows up where the action is gona be???? We dont need that much rain,I had 8 inches in my yard 1 inch before getting in the house
Cousin-it is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-23-2012, 10:37 PM   #4
Roll Tider
White Marlin
 
Austin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pensacola
Posts: 2,662
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cousin-it View Post
Well Cantore shows up where the action is gona be???? We dont need that much rain,I had 8 inches in my yard 1 inch before getting in the house
Well the kicker is that the flooding that we had 2 weeks ago was more rain than we had seen from one storm than any hurricane in the past 20+ years. But typically, Jim Cantore is a magnet.
Austin is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 08:33 AM   #5
Senior Member
Mingo
 
Don White's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Finally Navarre!
Posts: 145
Default

Big shift east last night by some of the comp. models leads to the N Gulf Coast being put under TS Warnings as of the 7:00 am CDT adv.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY

Part of the 4:00 am CDT NHC Discus.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.



.

Last edited by Don White; 06-24-2012 at 08:37 AM.
Don White is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 09:20 AM   #6
Senior Member
Trigger
 
leeprice72's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 352
Default

That 7 am advisory makes it seem like they are changing their minds on the projected path. Like the post above says, it is now more easterly. Those first predicted paths are never right anyway. And you must take in the Jim Canatori factor.....

It would not suprise me if the thing came in between here and Mobile. They always seem to target our bay systems.
leeprice72 is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 01:31 PM   #7
Senior Member
Blue Marlin
 
Orion45's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Navarre, FL
Posts: 5,471
Default

If the latest NHC track proves accurate, it will not bode well for New Orleans and the lower Louisiana parishes...especially if Debbie intensifies or turns slightly to the east. Debbie will push all the water up the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain. Let's hope Debbie remains a TS and makes a sharp turn to the west soon.
Attached Images
 
Orion45 is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 01:51 PM   #8
Senior Member
Snapper
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 476
Default

The latest from Crownweather (see bold text):

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Sunday, June 24, 2012 11:18 am

by Rob Lightbown

Tropical Storm Debby:
According to recon reports this morning, the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located to the northeast of the NHC official position. The reason for this is because the center of the storm seems to be constantly moving underneath the deeper convection. This fact, plus a change in the overall guidance, has caused me to seriously doubt the forecast track towards Texas. Very frustrating to the say the least!! Additionally with thunderstorms trying to develop on the western side of this storm and the fact that wind shear values are decreasing, Debby is likely to strengthen over the next couple of days and become a hurricane.

The latest track guidance has gone against my thinking and have converged on a track onshore somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Louisiana.

The big problem in the forecast track is the fact that the overall steering winds around Debby will be extremely weak over the next few days and the storm sits in between two big high pressure ridges. One ridge of high pressure will be located over the southern Plains while the other is sitting over the western Atlantic. In the middle is a departing trough of low pressure moving out of the northeastern United States.

The 10 million dollar forecast question is whether this trough of low pressure will be strong enough to pull Debby northeastward or will the trough miss the storm and allow the ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains states build to the north and turn it westward.

This change in the overall guidance has really put me at odds on what to do. I had a couple of questions this morning to answer: The first is should I maintain a Texas track, but shift it northward up the coast. The second question is should I shift the forecast track dramatically and risk the error of having the track be totally wrong. One thing that I noted was that the European ensembles show a large spread in the possible tracks ranging from central and south Texas to Tampa.

So, it is of my opinion and of total frustration that I am shifting the forecast track for Debby to an area between Mobile Bay and Apalachicola. With that said, the overall steering around Debby is extremely difficult to forecast and that Texas scenario is still possible. I want to point out that I have a serious concern that the turn towards the west turn may actually occur as the storm is coming inland and travel right along the coast from the Florida panhandle westward to southern Louisiana. If this should come to pass, then much of the northern Gulf coast would be raked by strong winds, heavy rainfall & surge concerns.

All interests along the northern Gulf coast should continue to monitor the progress of Debby very closely.
Naby is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 01:55 PM   #9
Roll Tider
White Marlin
 
Austin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pensacola
Posts: 2,662
Default

The weather guessers on TWC just said they they are starting to lean for more of an eastward path vs. the westward one that takes it into LA. They are also expecting a new model track to come out soon, so we will see what happens. It does not have a lot of clounds and convection around the center of rotation, so it will not be a very strong storm. I'd be surprised if it even comes close to 100mph winds.

Water already starting to creep up on Ft Pickens road

Last edited by Austin; 06-24-2012 at 02:26 PM.
Austin is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Old 06-24-2012, 07:24 PM   #10
Senior Member
White Marlin
 
Hydro Therapy 2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,605
Default

I like that picture
Hydro Therapy 2 is offline   Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Pensacola Fishing Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
How Did You Find Us?
Tell us how you heard about Pensacola Fishing Forum.

Log-in



Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off




All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0 RC 2
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.