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Old 06-18-2010, 07:19 AM   #1
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Default Tropical Wave

So I was looking at the models asI do for every tropical system. After noticing this little guy, <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml</a>, hanging together for the past few days. I didn't really expect it to be this organized as it has been in an area not so favorable. It continues to kind of hang in there as a tropical wave and start to drift NNW. It pretty much bisects FL as it moves across Miami still as a tropical wave on the 24th of June. It then exits the West coast of FL late on the 24th and into the GOM on the 25th, still as a tropical wave.

Thats about as far out as I like to get time wise and I usually dont pay a lot of attention until something gets closer but with the situation the way it is in the GOM I am paying close attention this season.

I will give this one a few days before an update.
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Old 06-18-2010, 08:22 PM   #2
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

Unless it gets into the warm waters of the gulf of mexico, you probably don't have to worrie about it. Looks like its going over Puerto Rico it should dissapate.

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Old 06-18-2010, 08:36 PM   #3
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

That is the same disturbance that Sealark posted last week. It started off with a 50% probability of development into a TS, but steadily decreased until Wednesday when it was 0 probability but still with some identity, and now it is moving up the scale to "who knows".
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Old 06-19-2010, 06:17 AM   #4
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

Todays model run has it continuing to weaken and speed up a bit, still travelling West. It does enter the GOM and some good news here, provides our area with ENE winds for a few days starting on the 24th. Winds do turn SE'erly on the 26th but I will take anything but a SW wind component at this point. There are signs of low level circulation developing in the GOM well SW of us associated with this wave on the 25th. But it continues to track WNW and does not look to develope into anything significant.
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Old 06-21-2010, 10:14 PM   #5
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

Tropical wave continues West but stays farther South than originally thought. System still gives the PanhandleEasterly winds to keep the oil offshore. Favorable windskeepingthe oil offshore look to be inplace beginning on the 25th through the end of the month.
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Old 06-23-2010, 06:54 AM   #6
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

All right, so this little guy wont quit, still heading West over E Cuba now. A few models do some interesting things here. The majority continue this guy West through the Yucatan out into the Bay of Campeche. The Bay of Campeche is an excellent early source region for hurricanes through July but it looks like this system moves a little bit to the North while gaining low level circulation then gets sheared apart in the upper levels.

Still provides good East winds 25-27th for the Panhandle to help keep the oil at bay. Then a weak front comes down on the 28th and we get a SW wind turning S. On the 29th a low developes on the tail end of the front bring N winds to the Panhandle for about 24 hours.
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Old 06-24-2010, 06:37 AM   #7
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

No changes, still tracking.
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Old 06-26-2010, 07:07 AM   #8
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Default RE: Tropical Wave

No changes other than the wind directions wont be as great as I once thought, after seeing some SAT shots of the oil location it seems almost every direction besides from the N is bad. We get a bit of N wind after the first as the front pushes through.
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