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Old 11-09-2009, 04:08 AM   #1
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This site puts many resources in one place:
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Old 11-09-2009, 07:22 AM   #2
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check out too....storm has experienced quite a bit of shear overnight and hopefully wont be a hurricane come landfall. Will probably be a rain/wind event except for those within 30 miles of the eye landfall (if an eye still exists at landfall). Everyone else will be experiencing a stron tropical storm with storm surge. Lets hope this is the case. Good luck to everyone down in the Pensacola/FWB/Destin/Orange Beacharea!

6:40AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Overnight Ida has been affected greatly by vertical shear and cooler water temperatures. The race between the shear/extratropical transition and landfall continues. It looks like the transition is winning now--there was a hint this was possible last night when recon found hail/lightning in the northern quadrant. The Hurricane Center is being very generous calling it a Hurricane at the 7AM EST advisory.

Judging by appearance it's likely that Ida will be a strong Tropical or Hybrid Storm at landfall maybe even decoupled from most of the convection, with a lot of hybrid storm tendencies, minor to moderate storm surge will be an issue near the landfall point and east. Along with the enhanced possibility for small short-lived tornadoes.

Because of the transition to extratropical, most to all of the worst weather may be well before landfall and mostly to the east and north.

For the rest of the Florida peninsula clouds from Ida will likely be overhead most of the day with the windy conditions, but there won't be much rain except in the Panhandle and Alabama.

It's mostly good news this morning, in the fact that most of the very strong winds will not reach the surface with the shear. The only real worry is some coastal flooding and spotty short lived tornadoes before landfall.

10PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up from Pascagoula, MI Eastward to Indian Pass, FL. Even though it will likely weaken, those in the area need to prepare for a possible Category 2 hurricane. Areas near the landfall point and eastward will see the worst from the system.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for areas just either side of the Hurricane Warning Area.

Any landfall is likely Tuesday morning, it is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If the NHC's current track were to verify it would be very near Pensacola, but there is a fair degree of uncertainty either way.
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