GDFL model and Fay, ??????? - Pensacola Fishing Forum

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Old 08-19-2008, 02:50 PM   #1
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Default GDFL model and Fay, ???????

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Same time model runs<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Fay<o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdlt...hour=Animation<o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">94L (watch Fay)<o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdlt...hour=Animation<o></o><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o></o>
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Old 08-19-2008, 10:03 PM   #2
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

You like that huh?

Heh heh... tricky little bastard isn't it?

Its pretty on the East Coast radars.... check it out...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar...1&amp;loop=yes
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Old 08-19-2008, 10:17 PM   #3
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

One of a few storms that actually dropped in pressure, formed an eye, and did all that while on land. It's a crazy system.
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Old 08-20-2008, 01:01 AM   #4
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

What's even crazier is the 00Z GFS run.

It takes the storm into the Atlantic, back over the state off Tarpon Springs, rakes Appalachicola through over to the mouth of the Miss, stalls it there AGAIN, then brings it back east and landfalls it for the final time roughly in my back yard!

Needless to say I hope that forecast DOES NOT verify.
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Old 08-20-2008, 06:25 PM   #5
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

Here's a full US radar loop.
Always goo to check before heading out.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
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Old 08-20-2008, 06:42 PM   #6
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

That sir, is a large map. :doh I did find the regional view...
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Old 08-20-2008, 07:03 PM   #7
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

OK, you're gonna loooove this.

So Fay goes off the Atlantic coast this morning.

Now it appears to be coming back. Due west.

The exact direction is difficult to determine from the radar loop, but in a few hours - and definitely by tomorrow - I'll know.

IF it comes straight west it comes back out into the gulf around Tarpon Springs. It won't be nasty at that point - probably a Depression - but then its over the Gulf and the bad news is that the shear is essentially zero with the water bathtub warm.

Not so good.

Then we get to play "ridge .vs. trough" again, but this time with the storm in the back 40 and headed west.
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Old 08-20-2008, 07:17 PM   #8
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

I'm looking at the radar right now, along with a few different types... The barometric pressure is dropping and it looks like its picking up some convection and it looks like storms are starting to wrap around the center of circulation, which is NOT good... The longer it keeps creeping north, the better.. But don't think for one second we are in the clear as Genesis said. This things way too unpredictable thus far
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Old 08-20-2008, 07:49 PM   #9
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Default RE: GDFL model and Fay, ???????

Quote:
reeltime (8/20/2008)Here's a full US radar loop.

Always goo to check before heading out.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php


That is one big ass map. Pretty cool perspective.
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