Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog: Karen - Pensacola Fishing Forum

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Old 10-03-2013, 09:00 PM   #1
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Default Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog: Karen

Good info and graphics from Dr. Jeff Masters;

Tropical Storm Karen is having trouble with dry air and high wind shear as the storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph into the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is in the storm, and found top surface winds near 65 mph between 3:30 - 4:30 pm EDT Thursday, and a central pressure of 999 mb, 5 mb lower than this morning's. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm whose heavy thunderstorms have declined in intensity and areal coverage since this morning. The heavy thunderstorms are all on the northern and eastern flanks of the storm, and the low-level center is exposed to view. High wind shear of 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest, is driving dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core. Heavy thunderstorms are having difficulty building on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation because of the shear, resulting in a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen is attempting to build an eyewall, and has managed to wrap a band of heavy thunderstorm about half way around its center. If this band wraps all the way around, Karen will likely be able to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29C (84F). Ocean heat content is about 30 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are already pushing tides 1 - 1.5' above normal along the coast from Eastern Louisiana to Alabama, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.

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Old 10-04-2013, 08:00 AM   #2
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Default Jeff Masters is spot on

I have been using weatherunderground.com for several years. His forecasts have been correct. Not only does he head up the University of Michigan meteorology department, he has a large number of PhD candidates working for him and the best IT available.
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