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Snapper
 
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| Another fun interactive site which has Ike coming right up our ass. http://www.stormpulse.com/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." -Winston Churchill It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.." -Samuel Adams "I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mohandas Gandhi
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Blue Marlin
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| I don't like it when METS start throwing around words like the following: From Jeff Master's Blog "It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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White Marlin
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why hasnt the 2pm edt update came out yet?
   
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Grouper
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because they know, that we know, that they know we are f**ked...so why bother.
Jeff Perkins 
www.myspace.com/disturbedoverwho 2009 Unofficial Spring Shark Tournament Winners!
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White Marlin
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Grouper
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bluffman2 (9/5/2008)
crazyfire (9/5/2008)
because they know, that we know, that they know we are f**ked...so why bother. well i need something to do...IM BORED AS HELL HERE AT WORK..and the updates kinda keep me busy thats right, the closer it gets...the more you can inform the wife of your survival calculations. $500 for beer $100 for food.
Jeff Perkins
www.myspace.com/disturbedoverwho 2009 Unofficial Spring Shark Tournament Winners!
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White Marlin
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crazyfire (9/5/2008)
bluffman2 (9/5/2008)
crazyfire (9/5/2008)
because they know, that we know, that they know we are f**ked...so why bother. well i need something to do...IM BORED AS HELL HERE AT WORK..and the updates kinda keep me busy thats right, the closer it gets...the more you can inform the wife of your survival calculations. $500 for beer $100 for food. no wife..just me and my son......but your $$ calculations are pretty close to mine
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Trigger
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Telum Piscis (9/5/2008)
I don't like it when METS start throwing around words like the following: From Jeff Master's Blog "It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:"
You left this little gem off: Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).
Donny Hanto War Eagle!!! Team Kickin Assphalt
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Grouper
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bluffman2 (9/5/2008)
crazyfire (9/5/2008)
bluffman2 (9/5/2008)
crazyfire (9/5/2008)
because they know, that we know, that they know we are f**ked...so why bother. well i need something to do...IM BORED AS HELL HERE AT WORK..and the updates kinda keep me busy thats right, the closer it gets...the more you can inform the wife of your survival calculations. $500 for beer $100 for food. no wife..just me and my son......but your $$ calculations are pretty close to mine so if we split it...we are only lookin at 300 a piece...sounds good to me.
Jeff Perkins
www.myspace.com/disturbedoverwho 2009 Unofficial Spring Shark Tournament Winners!
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Trigger
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| Shows it as a Cat 4 when it passes S of Florida and enters Gulf. This model is not good news. 
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White Marlin
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well that looks like it would hook back NW towards the big bend area huh??
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Sailfish
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Blue Marlin
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I don't like the latest advisory 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Sailfish
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Snapper
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Ha ha, you guys got me.... Sorry about that Alabamians, but since you want to be included lets go with landfall in Mobile on the 12th. Just kidding folks, dont start packing the truck for LA just yet. There are still a features out there that I want to shore up before I make a guesstimate here. Two fronts and two batches of high pressure still have to play out on this one.
Steve Adams
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Snapper
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All right, its time to be more certain here on Ike. I am certain now that Ike will be a CAT 3 of 4 in the Gulf early next week. And I am certain now that Ike will take one of two paths. Ike will steer North once in the gulf towards the FL panhandle. Now is where the uncertainty comes in, Ike will either make landfall somewhere in the FL panhandle or Ike will hook back across FL and out into the Atlantic. I am for certain one of the two scenarios will occur and it will be a major hurricane in either scenario.
Its time to be prepared in either location, ensure you have what you need just in case.
Steve Adams
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White Marlin
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Mingo
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What is the possibility of it heading further west? I've seen some models this a.m. that steer it that way...
yakyakyakyakyak
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Sailfish
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| Thank God my Reunion is next weekend. I was gonna leave Friday morning but may just leave Thursday.
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Grouper
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Snapper
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| I see similarities of another I "H" and I do not like it at all. Somebody grab a Tina Turner wig and stand in Mexico or New Orleans. Ya know Ike will hit it!!!!!
Hug and Kiss your kids tonight, there are alot of Soldiers and Sailors who wish they could.
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Sailfish
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Ike gonna slap somebody !! 
Team Florabama
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Mingo
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Alot of these give it a west turn futher up the Gulf... that gives some hope.....the GFDL has it coming straight for Pensacola :(
yakyakyakyakyak
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Snapper
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Grouper
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Hopefully it Hit's N.O. that toilet needs another flushing.
Team Chunky Love Mid-Pacific/Wake Island Chapter Growing Old Not Up, One is mandatory the other is optional!
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Grouper
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White Marlin
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Sailfish
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| It's starting to look a lot like the same warning cone that Gustav had.
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Grouper
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Snapper
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Things are looking quite serious here as the models are shaping up showing very similar tracks in each. I will start posting twice a day following the 00Z model run (which I usually get to each morning) and the 12Z model run (which I usually get to around now).
12Z model run shows Ike entering the gulf on the afternoon of the 9th as a CAT 3 of 996 mbs. What really worries me is that the models show an intense, and I mean intense strengthening until landfall. The models are now leaning more towards a panhandle FL landfall late afternoon on the 13th as a strong CAT 4 of 972 mbs. My model of choice actually has landfall very near Ft Walton Beach at 6pm on the 13th.
Now granted thats a week out but that model did very well for me on Gustav, feel free to go back to the Gustav thread to check. I pretty much pegged that landfall a week out.
Now, there is still a small chance that Ike could hook NE over FL and out into the Atlantic but things are shaping up for more of a panhandle hit. I am going 75 percent sure that Ike will strike somewhere between Mobile, AL and Tallahassee, FL and 25 percent of Ike hooking NE and striking the West coast of FL.
Stay tuned, I will post more when I know more. For sure though, we are starting to run through our checklist here at the house especially because we have time this weekend.
Steve Adams
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