|
|
|
Ruby Red Lip
 
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 5/19/2009 5:06:21 PM
Posts: 98,
Visits: 772
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blue Marlin
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 6:32:03 PM
Posts: 4,382,
Visits: 17,966
|
|
fish24/7 (8/17/2008)
looks like the models are changing, do yall think we will be ok?, live on the water and need info....Just keep a watchfull eye on all sources of info. If you live on the water you better always prepare yourself every June 1st of every year. Just as everyone else should do the same. That will eliminate the need to run out and run around trying to get prepared along with all the other last minute idiots. We will know more in about 24-48 hours with this one. The models BAMS, BAMD, BAMM that put it over our area directly are purely statistical/historical models. Meaning they mostly do not use current data as input. They are a tool for use, but have far less weight versus the other models. This is what the NHC has to say about the numerical models: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
|
|
|
|
|
Grouper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 4:17:11 PM
Posts: 908,
Visits: 14,014
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ruby Red Lip
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 3/13/2010 3:47:01 PM
Posts: 63,
Visits: 1,949
|
|
| Right now it looks like Fay is taking almost the same track as Dennis did in 05. Have to see what this storm does the next couple of days.
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:46:36 PM
Posts: 1,465,
Visits: 3,184
|
|
fish24/7 (8/17/2008)
looks like the models are changing, do yall think we will be ok?, live on the water and need info....Not sure if you are joking here or not. But if you aren't, this storm presents one of the major problems iwth hurricanes. Right now, there's no certainity where its going. however, there is some certainity it will hit Wednesday, probabaly afternoon evening time frame. That means you have to decide now what you are going to do and act on it. If you wait till later Monday, or Tuesday, until they get a good handle on where its going, you'll be SOL.
|
|
|
|
|
Trigger
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 6:13:13 PM
Posts: 386,
Visits: 3,716
|
|
Well as for right now, anyones guess is as good as the rest. The post I made previously, containing my thoughts on fay, is starting to seem more and more as something to consider... But one thing anyone on the gulf coast could almost guarantee is.... If jim cantore is anywhere near you, you might as well go ahead and pack your bags!
The track is looking a lot like Dennis, it just depends on how long it remains on a wnw track. They predict it to be making the NW turn by tomorrow in the early AM.. but if that doesnt happen, look for the models to shift west once again. Everything will be a lot clearer based on what happens in the next 24 hours. It will make a Northern turn at some point, its just a matter of when. Im sure Genesis will let everyone know what to expect, just like he has for the last several years. . My guess is that the big bend is gonna get a strong cat1 or low cat2... but its still early to be certain..
ROLL TIDE ROLL
Support Catch And Release
|
|
|
|
|
Snapper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 4:37:57 AM
Posts: 461,
Visits: 1,717
|
|
Spoke to Jim Cantore last night, he hasnt made any travel plans yet.....
Steve Adams
|
|
|
|
|
Mingo
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:16:03 AM
Posts: 161,
Visits: 2,364
|
|
| Yea, I'm, waiting on the next model runs to see if this shifts west again. Is that 10 local?
|
|
|
|
|
Ruby Red Lip
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 9/3/2009 8:51:50 PM
Posts: 83,
Visits: 228
|
|
| From recent history, if Jim's not here, we're good to go!! Seriously, I have been to all the NOAA sites and wunderground. I can't see it coming here because of the front that just came through turning it back into Central FL. We bought a new generator 2 years ago and STILL haven't taken it out of the box. I won't let hubby touch it.......kinda like a good luck charm!!! Take care, P'cola!!!!
2007 TROPHY Pro  2152 walkaround 190 merc i/o NIGHTWOLF
|
|
|
|
|
Mingo
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 2:33:44 PM
Posts: 117,
Visits: 927
|
|
| Well, looking at the WV loop of the ConUS it appears that the trough across the belt of the nation is starting to dig, indicating that the cut-off ULL may get ejected. If it does, that will effectively block Fay from coming westward to any material degree, although I don't see a solution for a recurvature in the cards here (e.g. out the EAST side of the state), and in fact once that trough passes - and it well may before Fay gets to land headed north, there could be somewhat of a westward nudge to the track. If it goes inland in SW Florida and remains over land then it will be a nuisance and heavy rain risk (good for GA; they can use it) anyway. I'd say the risk of it coming up here has come down materially; I wouldn't call that risk "gone" at this point, but I do believe it has narrowed. The uncertainty right now is that forward motion is essentially nil in the last few hours and it appears to be trying to reform a center a bit NW of previous fixes. Since we can't get aircraft into Cuban airspace, we have to wait until tomorrow to be sure - but this is what it looks like on the IR and WV loops. NoGaps continues to insist that this storm will come into the gulf and have a westward component to its motion. I see how its arriving at that conclusion but I'm losing confidence in the synoptic evolution that gets there. There's also a fair bit of shear showing up on the west side of the storm, although I wouldn't be on that holding up past tomorrow morning. The WV loop is very cool - and complex - right now. By tomorrow morning we should have a decent handle on this thing, but the bad news is that we also likely are only 24 hours away from a mainland landfall at that point too, unless it is indeed coming west (in which case we've got another ~12-24 hours, depending on exactly how far west) http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Investing? http://tickerforum.org and http://market-ticker.org
Diving? http://scubaforum.org
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:40:08 PM
Posts: 1,565,
Visits: 4,613
|
|
I was wondering why it wasn't coming into the gulf more and knew there had to be something going on to make it turn north like it is and I am sure glad it's there.  Do you think it will keep going on it's projected path?
_______________________________________________________________________
>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
|
|
|
|
|
Snapper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 4:37:57 AM
Posts: 461,
Visits: 1,717
|
|
We are outta the woods, last post on this one, I lost 5 bucks....
Steve Adams
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:46:36 PM
Posts: 1,465,
Visits: 3,184
|
|
SheYakFishr (8/18/2008)
I am sure glad it's there.actually, I was kind of hoping this one would hit us. It had an outside chance of being a Cat3, week one it did. I would rather take an earlier smaller storm than a later monster. That of course is defying all rules of probablity and saying tracks are not mutal exclusive and we only get hit by one storm a year.
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:08:17 PM
Posts: 1,257,
Visits: 3,400
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:40:08 PM
Posts: 1,565,
Visits: 4,613
|
|
What is strange... Mobile got hit with Frederick in 1979 (I moved here the year before)... then we didn't have another for 16 years... until Erin... and then Opal.. and of course, it didn't stop there. I wish we could wait another 16 years until we got hit again.  Are you nuts??? You want a hurricane? I don't want one... PERIOD!! I have 14 windows to board up and I'm NOT looking forward to doing that at all. 
_______________________________________________________________________
>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:46:36 PM
Posts: 1,465,
Visits: 3,184
|
|
SheYakFishr (8/18/2008)Are you nuts??? You want a hurricane? I don't want one... PERIOD!! I have 14 windows to board up and I'm NOT looking forward to doing that at all. weren't you asking about how to board up windows last year? what did you finally decide on?
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:40:08 PM
Posts: 1,565,
Visits: 4,613
|
|
| I didn't decide on anything... lol Luckily never needed them at that other house.. but I did get some plywood... that I will use down the road for shelves. Now... the prev owner of this house... made up these painted plywood window covers that you put up and then screw them into the brick. I have no idea what size screws they take as they didn't leave any... just all the board pieces. When I was looking around the outside of the house prior to buying it, I saw every window has those blue plastic screw holders inserted on the sides of each window into the brick and figured that what it was for. I have no idea of their numbering system either... so it's going to take a little while to figure it all out and then install them. I guess I could try to pull out one of those blue plastic things and see what size screw will fit them. One day, I'll like to get those fabric sheets put up. It sure would be less hassle and I'd need less muscle to put them up.
_______________________________________________________________________
>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
|
|
|
|
|
Grouper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:42:28 PM
Posts: 637,
Visits: 4,111
|
|
| Pam, typically the blue anchors take a 10 - 12 sheet metal or wood screw. I would buy pan head sheet metal, 1 1/2" long in stainless steel in a number 12. You could also probably get away with 1 1/2" long deck screws that wouldn't rust as well. The problem as you say is figuring out which panel goes to which window and in which direction so the screw holes line up.
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:46:36 PM
Posts: 1,465,
Visits: 3,184
|
|
| you can also use studs, treaded on both ends, crew them in, and then use wing nuts to hold the plywood in place. You would always have that stud sticking out though. Thats what i"ve done on my house. I have vynal siding with the fake shutters by the windows. The threaded studs sticking out really isn't noticable.
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:40:08 PM
Posts: 1,565,
Visits: 4,613
|
|
Gonnamissher (8/18/2008)
Pam, typically the blue anchors take a 10 - 12 sheet metal or wood screw. I would buy pan head sheet metal, 1 1/2" long in stainless steel in a number 12. You could also probably get away with 1 1/2" long deck screws that wouldn't rust as well. The problem as you say is figuring out which panel goes to which window and in which direction so the screw holes line up.Thanks!!! That will DEFINATELY help!! Yeah... I'm going to need SOME TIME to figure out which board goes to where... I did clear off that table that these are piled high on and picked up a small one (have 4 small windows) and it has either a E or 3 on it... oh geeeez... It's going to take all day to figure them out.. and when I do, I'm going to mark the window and board. Maybe what I should do is try to figure out which window it will fit... then just lean it against the house underneath that window... laffs... until the season is over with.
_______________________________________________________________________
>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
|
|
|
|
|
Sailfish
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 5:40:08 PM
Posts: 1,565,
Visits: 4,613
|
|
AUradar (8/18/2008)
you can also use studs, treaded on both ends, crew them in, and then use wing nuts to hold the plywood in place. You would always have that stud sticking out though. Thats what i"ve done on my house. I have vynal siding with the fake shutters by the windows. The threaded studs sticking out really isn't noticable. Hmmm.. that is another option. I've seen where some people just cram a 2x4 in the window. That seems the easiest and quickest way.. unless you use just sheets and hurricane clips. Each board section contains 3 pieces. The large center piece that covers the entire window and then... two smaller sections on the sides (that might stick out 3" maybe) that are to be screwed into the brick/blue anchors. It was a pretty good idea.. I thought. Plus I noticed the prev owner drilled small holes in a couple of them so you can see out a little bit. At least those will tell me which way to put them in. :- ) I know it must of taken a WHILE to make these and do all the drilling.
_______________________________________________________________________
>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
|
|
|
|
|
Grouper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 2:42:28 PM
Posts: 637,
Visits: 4,111
|
|
| The screws with studs make the installation easier, but you have to deal with the studs sticking out all the time. They do come with a white plastic cover to help the appearance a little. The Plylock clips are really nice, but expensive ($28 / 4 windows). I mark my plywood with magic marker master bedroom, small bathroom, back bedroom, etc, with an up arrow to indicate direction.
|
|