|
|
|
Sailfish
 
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 12/1/2008 6:59:45 PM
Posts: 1,213,
Visits: 3,930
|
|
thanks for taking MS out of your prediction
 
|
|
|
|
|
Trigger
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 7:44:57 AM
Posts: 266,
Visits: 1,080
|
|
Ha ha, what do you mean, I have Mobile in there....... He he....
|
|
|
|
|
White Marlin
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Today @ 6:51:38 PM
Posts: 2,460,
Visits: 8,271
|
|
weatherman (9/6/2008)
Now, there is still a small chance that Ike could hook NE over FL and out into the Atlantic but things are shaping up for more of a panhandle hit. I am going 75 percent sure that Ike will strike somewhere between Mobile, AL and Tallahassee, FL and 25 percent of Ike hooking NE and striking the West coast of FL.
Stay tuned, I will post more when I know more. For sure though, we are starting to run through our checklist here at the house especially because we have time this weekend.How are you dismissing the more western track of many of the model runs???? Many of the models are betting that the weakness in the ridge will not be strong enough to turn Ike directly northward and instead keep more of a WNW to NW track and bring it somwhere from Pensacola to Louisiana. Just asking. In fact I do not see any of the models now turning it back to the west coast of Florida.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." The user formerly known as Knot a Yacht Jon
|
|
|
|
|
Mingo
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 11/8/2008 9:30:00 PM
Posts: 87,
Visits: 139
|
|
There goes my vacation, but beyond that, wishing all you guys down there well. This does not look good at all.
_____________________________________________________
think for yourself, question authority....
|
|
|
|
|
Mingo
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 11/8/2008 9:30:00 PM
Posts: 87,
Visits: 139
|
|
It seems that you follow the GFDL model, correct weatherman? It seems like there is still a lot more models out there that send Ike more west. Masters agrees with you, I just wondered what it is that makes the more north-northwesterly turn more apparent?
_____________________________________________________
think for yourself, question authority....
|
|
|
|
|
Trigger
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 7:44:57 AM
Posts: 266,
Visits: 1,080
|
|
TP, I had one still pulling NE, and you are right about the weakness (a trough of low pressure, aka front) will be the key to moving Ike. Its that trough of low pressure that will or wont move Ike. I have the High weakening and the trough moving through at the same time so I had discounted (threw out) the western track models. Both the GFDL and the GFS, which the latter of the two I have great respect for from Cuba North have Ike coming North into the trough.
As you can see from the NHC depictions, they are also turning it more N, which means they are leaning forward with the fact that the trough will impact Ike's progression. What I am saying is that I have leaned all the way forward that it will.
Good catch though on the Westward tracking models, I really hope they are right and I am wrong. This would be a good time for me to be wrong.
|
|
|
|
|
Trigger
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 7:44:57 AM
Posts: 266,
Visits: 1,080
|
|
Snivelm, I dont follow the GFDL, I do look at it, but its a 50/50 model for me which really is pretty good as hurricane forecasting goes. I use all the models but really narrow them down depending on where the storm is and forecast to be. Then I use whatever model that has done the best historically in that area. So for instance, I may use a certain model when a storm is in the Gulf versa a storm is in the Carribean. That being said I really like the GFS for Gulf systems that are North of Cuba. I have gotten pretty lucky with it. And yes its luck, scientific luck I guess but mother nature will do what mother nature will do. I just like to narrow down her options a bit.
Now, for Ike, being that the GFDL and the GFS are somewhat in agreement, that and a few other things have me raising the warning flag.
|
|
| |