Tropical activity...

chud · 05-18-2009, 01:14 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=1223

An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to nine inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 1), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. The exact timing and location of the rains over Florida are still uncertain, as the GFS model predicts development of the low over the Bahamas, while the ECMWF and UKMET models predict development over South Florida. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the storm's center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).

Good time to review your preparations....

Magic236 · 05-18-2009, 04:32 PM

Thanks, I hope we have a quiet season and was hoping the winds would lay down this Holiday Weekend.......

phantom · 05-18-2009, 04:51 PM

Been watching it already...

Pourman1 · 05-18-2009, 06:34 PM

WAVES !!! :letsparty

weatherman · 05-18-2009, 09:18 PM

No worries kids, although if you had plans to fish off shore this weekend I hope you have a back up plan.

Mike aka FishWerks · 05-18-2009, 10:56 PM

Looks like a fair rain maker...will be good for the lawn.

69Viking · 05-19-2009, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Magic236 (5/18/2009)Thanks, I hope we have a quiet season and was hoping the winds would lay down this Holiday Weekend.......

This low over South Florida is predicted to move West into the GOM thus it could make a mess of our holiday weekend. Time will tell.....

cert-315 · 05-20-2009, 12:45 AM

Yeah, super. I have family coming in from IL over the weekend wanting to fish (inshore/surf but still...) Looks like we might be doin a lot of drinkin instead lol.....

weatherman · 05-20-2009, 02:15 PM

Yeah, you may as well stock up at the local liquor store. I dont see anything better than 5-7 all weekend.

05-18-2009, 01:14 PM	#1
chud Senior Member Trigger Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Perdido Posts: 233	Tropical activity... http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=1223 An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to nine inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 1), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. The exact timing and location of the rains over Florida are still uncertain, as the GFS model predicts development of the low over the Bahamas, while the ECMWF and UKMET models predict development over South Florida. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the storm's center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance). Good time to review your preparations....

05-18-2009, 04:32 PM	#2
Magic236 Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Birmingham/Destin Posts: 696	RE: Tropical activity... Thanks, I hope we have a quiet season and was hoping the winds would lay down this Holiday Weekend.......

05-18-2009, 04:51 PM	#3
phantom Senior Member Mingo Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 131	RE: Tropical activity... Been watching it already...

05-18-2009, 06:34 PM	#4
Pourman1 Senior Member Sailfish Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: In the Green Room Posts: 2,487	RE: Tropical activity... WAVES !!! :letsparty

05-18-2009, 09:18 PM	#5
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 706	RE: Tropical activity... No worries kids, although if you had plans to fish off shore this weekend I hope you have a back up plan.

05-18-2009, 10:56 PM	#6
Mike aka FishWerks Senior Member Sailfish Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,642	RE: Tropical activity... Looks like a fair rain maker...will be good for the lawn.

05-20-2009, 12:45 AM	#8
cert-315 Senior Member Mingo Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 160	RE: Tropical activity... Yeah, super. I have family coming in from IL over the weekend wanting to fish (inshore/surf but still...) Looks like we might be doin a lot of drinkin instead lol.....

05-20-2009, 02:15 PM	#9
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 706	RE: Tropical activity... Yeah, you may as well stock up at the local liquor store. I dont see anything better than 5-7 all weekend.

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