TD 5, may be back - Pensacola Fishing Forum

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Old 08-15-2010, 11:55 AM   #1
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Default TD 5, may be back

Worth keeping an eye on... The radar picture showing the gulf right now looks gnarly.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are still spinning over southwestern Georgia, and the storm is headed southwards towards the Gulf of Mexico, where redevelopment into a tropical depression could occur by Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense thunderstorms has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity continues to intensify and expand in areal coverage. Most of the heavy rain is offshore, but I expect heavy rains will spread to the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. These heavy rains will likely spread to coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana by Monday, as the center of ex-TD 5 approaches the coast and the storm begins to wind up again. By Tuesday, the GFS and HWRF models predict that the center will move off the coast, and TD 5 will be reborn again. The system may have enough time over water to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning over Southeast Louisiana. Wind shear is currently low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, over the next three days, favoring re-development of TD 5. NHC is giving a 20% chance that TD 5 will regenerate into a tropical depression by 8am EDT Tuesday. I think the odds are higher than this, perhaps 40%.

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Old 08-15-2010, 01:03 PM   #2
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Lightbulb

Joe Bastardi with Accuweather called this last week. He was also eerily accurate about the 2004 season. He had Ivan hitting between NO and PCB before it had hit the Gulf.
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Old 08-15-2010, 01:41 PM   #3
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Great post. Been watching this myself. That low shear is gonna give this thing a shot. Offshore has been blowing up all day.

Gulf of Mexico AVN Color Imagery - Satellite Services Division
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