Round 2

weatherman · 07-21-2010, 05:49 PM

The tropical wave in the Carribean will maintain strength and move WNW. By Friday morning the system begins a NWerly track and does strengthen a bit. Right now I am hedging my bets as TS for worst case. Landfall looks to be anywhere from New Orleans to Mobile. Will be watching this one closely.

lobsterman · 07-21-2010, 05:59 PM

Certainly not what we need in the Gulf with all this oil.

weatherman · 07-21-2010, 07:48 PM

I dont know, its capped for now. Curious as to how they expect to do the top kill in 48 hours with the sea state a bit rough. I guess there are two trains of thought, one is that clam seas make an easier clean up, or two that a hurricane will be able to break it up quicker than we could pick it up. Regardless it will be bad for the marshes, the oil will be pushed farther inland.

Buckyt · 07-21-2010, 07:53 PM

A friend from OB who is working on the oil skimmers has been told they will have to pick up the booms 48 hours before the storm hits? Says the boom will cause more harm than good during a storm?

weatherman · 07-21-2010, 08:04 PM

Well, they certainly wont be doing any good. And finding all of them after the storm would be some task.

feelin' wright · 07-22-2010, 01:25 PM

It look like on the models they have this heading toward texas in a near straight line (WNW). Two models that I found will have the storm head north as soon as it makes landfall riding a frontal boundry. Am I correct in the assumption that if the storm slows it would push the landfall area east?

weatherman · 07-22-2010, 01:46 PM

The track has shifted a little farther West today due to the cold front that moves across the Northern half of the nation outrunning the tropical system. Low pressure moves towards low pressure taking the path of least resistance. Still looking at a TS as worst case here.

Storms regardless of type do tend to slow down during intensification and then speed up as they fall apart. Steering, or the track of a storm is based upon a number of variables with speed only one of them.

oldflathead · 07-22-2010, 04:49 PM

Is your boat ready?
Even if it is only a TS, it can do damage to unprepared boats in marinas, on private docks or at anchor.

parrothead · 07-22-2010, 07:35 PM

Or in your driveway !!!!!!!!!

Scott

Lyin Too · 07-23-2010, 09:45 AM

Weatherman, how will the circulation that has developed in the center of the gulf affect the steering of this thing, or will it develop itself since its over warm water?

07-21-2010, 05:49 PM	#1
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 694	Round 2 The tropical wave in the Carribean will maintain strength and move WNW. By Friday morning the system begins a NWerly track and does strengthen a bit. Right now I am hedging my bets as TS for worst case. Landfall looks to be anywhere from New Orleans to Mobile. Will be watching this one closely.

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07-21-2010, 05:59 PM	#2
lobsterman Jiggin Finatic Blue Marlin Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Okaloosa Posts: 5,636	Certainly not what we need in the Gulf with all this oil.

07-21-2010, 07:48 PM	#3
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 694	I dont know, its capped for now. Curious as to how they expect to do the top kill in 48 hours with the sea state a bit rough. I guess there are two trains of thought, one is that clam seas make an easier clean up, or two that a hurricane will be able to break it up quicker than we could pick it up. Regardless it will be bad for the marshes, the oil will be pushed farther inland.

07-21-2010, 07:53 PM	#4
Buckyt Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 708	A friend from OB who is working on the oil skimmers has been told they will have to pick up the booms 48 hours before the storm hits? Says the boom will cause more harm than good during a storm?

07-21-2010, 08:04 PM	#5
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 694	Well, they certainly wont be doing any good. And finding all of them after the storm would be some task.

07-22-2010, 01:25 PM	#6
feelin' wright Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Downtown Mulat Posts: 741	It look like on the models they have this heading toward texas in a near straight line (WNW). Two models that I found will have the storm head north as soon as it makes landfall riding a frontal boundry. Am I correct in the assumption that if the storm slows it would push the landfall area east?

07-22-2010, 01:46 PM	#7
weatherman Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 694	The track has shifted a little farther West today due to the cold front that moves across the Northern half of the nation outrunning the tropical system. Low pressure moves towards low pressure taking the path of least resistance. Still looking at a TS as worst case here. Storms regardless of type do tend to slow down during intensification and then speed up as they fall apart. Steering, or the track of a storm is based upon a number of variables with speed only one of them.

07-22-2010, 04:49 PM	#8
oldflathead Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,129	Is your boat ready? Even if it is only a TS, it can do damage to unprepared boats in marinas, on private docks or at anchor.

07-22-2010, 07:35 PM	#9
parrothead Senior Member Sailfish Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Cantonment Posts: 2,061	Or in your driveway !!!!!!!!! Scott

07-23-2010, 09:45 AM	#10
Lyin Too Senior Member Grouper Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Tuscaloosa/Orange Beach Posts: 608	Weatherman, how will the circulation that has developed in the center of the gulf affect the steering of this thing, or will it develop itself since its over warm water?

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